OEMs Seeing More Inventory as Days Supply Rises

Despite generally healthy sales in April, brands with 100+ average days’ supply pulled the average days’ supply up two days at the start of May to 76 days, according to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto Live Market View data released May 16. One month ago, at the start of April, days’ supply stood at 74.

At the start of May, the top end of the trending days’ supply jumped collectively, with Stellantis brands Jeep and Ram weighing on the average. Days’ supply at Jeep increased by 21%, while Ram jumped up by 14%. Both brands have days’ supply at more than twice the industry average.

MINI and Mitsubishi both joined the 100+ club at the start of May, with MINI new-vehicle inventory jumping to 108 days’ supply, a 56% increase month over month, and Mitsubishi climbed to 115 days’ supply, representing a 26% increase month over month. Those increases were offset by a continuing trend of tight supply at Toyota, Lexus, and Honda, as well as outliers such as Porsche, where inventory tightened by 10 days from last month, landing at 64 days’ supply at the beginning of May.

The total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles opened May at 2.84 million units. That is 961,000 units – or 51% – above a year ago. It was up from a revised 2.77 million at the start of April when days’ supply was 74. Compared to 2019, new-vehicle inventory volume at the start of May is down 26%; days’ supply is tighter by 19%.

The Cox Automotive days’ supply is based on the daily sales rate for the most recent 30-day period, which ended May 2. Sales during that period ran 5% ahead of a year ago. the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales in April was 15.5 million, keeping 2024 generally on track to be the best new-vehicle sales year since 2019, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates.

The average listing price for a new vehicle at the start of May was $47,433, lower by $94 compared to one year ago. Listing prices remained relatively flat through April. When looking at inventory by price level, more affordable vehicles show less supply. The highest-priced inventory, at $50,000+, has increased to an average of 90 days’ supply, representing a 5.5% increase month over month.

The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in the U.S. in April was $48,510, up 2.2% from March, the highest price since December 2023, according to Kelley Blue Book. Discounts and incentives in April dipped to 6.3% of ATP, the first decrease since October 2023, when incentive levels ticked lower to 4.7% from 4.8% in September.